Sunday, November 19, 2006

Only three possibilities

In case you haven't seen any examination of the BCS yet, here's the straight-up goods - Only three teams can possibly make the championship game against Ohio State. Michigan, USC, and Florida.

The latest BCS poll looks like this;

1. Ohio State - 1.0000
2. Michigan - 0.9263
3. U of S.C. - 0.9188
4. Florida - 0.8838
5. Notre Dame - 0.8198
6. Arkansas - 0.8065

- Michigan's season is finished and their lead is precariously small over #3 USC. They actually have to cheer for other teams to lose in order to get in. They must have USC AND Florida lose, or they go to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

- USC is the only team left that controls their own destiny. If they defeat both Notre Dame and UCLA, they will leapfrog Michigan and get to Glendale. The win over #5 Notre Dame will improve their strength of schedule just enough to give them the #2 spot.

- Florida is in Michigan's boat. they have to cheer for other teams to lose. But they also have to win against Florida State (on a down year, but that means nothing in this big rivalry) and Arkansas. The win against #6 Arkansas will also boost their strength of schedule enough to leapfrog Michigan.

- Notre Dame has one game left, at USC. Even if they win, they will not have enough momentum to jump over Michigan. Plus, there's no way a one-loss Notre Dame gets in over a one-loss Michigan, especially when ND's one loss was to Michigan. Plus, nobody gains a full point in the BCS standings without the team above them losing, and even Llllloyd Carr can't figure out a way to lose again in 2006.

- Arkansas put up a valiant effort, and will be rewarded with a BCS Bowl. Just not the big one. Not enough gas in the tank to jump over the Wolverines, I'm afraid. They could go 12-1 and finish with 12 straight wins. That rule about "losing early is better than losing late" only works if you don't lose early by 36 points, which the Razorbacks did to USC, 50-14.

Who do I want?

I want USC.

This senior class has defeated all the great teams of the 21st century. Michigan (5 times), Texas, Notre Dame, Miami. All we need is USC and we will be in the history books as the team who beat the world.

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