Bowl predictions, part 5

Gotta get back up on the horse and continue these before I get behind.....

By the way, so far I'm 4-3. But it could be worse...I could be the PAC-10, who sucks big time so far this bowl season.
I incorrectly picked Northern Illinois over TCU, Troy over Rice, and Tulsa over Utah.
I correctly picked BYU over Oregon, South Florida over East Carolina, San Jose State over New Mexico, and Hawaii over Arizona State.

Back to my predictions......

Independence Bowl
Oklahoma State (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)

A lot of people will look at this game and wonder how each team got in, based on average records. Fact is, these teams are not as bad as their record suggests they are.

Oklahoma State got walloped once, 36-10 at Texas. Besides that, they played well all year, defeating a ranked Nebraska by 12 points, and nearly knocking off Big 12 Champion Oklahoma (they had three shots inside the Sooner 25 yard line in the final 30 seconds, before losing by 6).

Alabama had a rough schedule and lost to four ranked teams, sometimes close (three points at Tennessee) and sometimes not so close (15 points against Florida). But their wins are not very impressive, claiming only to hold Colt Brennan to a meager 2 TD passes in a win over Hawaii.

So the records are evenly matched......are the teams evenly matched? No, they are not.

Oklahoma State's offense is better than the Bama defense, and the Bama offensive line is awful. Throw in the fact that Bama doesn't have a head coach, and it doesn't look good for the SEC in their first bowl matchup.
Oklahoma State 27
Alabama 17
--------------------------------------
Texas Bowl
Rutgers (10-2) vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Now the bowls are starting to get interesting. In my opinion, this is the first "must-see" bowl game of the year. It features two teams that nobody expected to do well. A couple of upsets later, we have the makings of a great game.

Rutgers has a lot of talent on their team, led by Heisman candidate Ray Rice. But as the season wore on, Rice became less of a focal point on the team and more of the go-to guy. The Big East quickly learned that they needed to penetrate and stop more than just Rice. Sure, Rice racked up over 1,600 yards on the ground, but when the chips were down, Rutgers often went away from Rice to make the winning play.

Kansas State looked like an average squad and was barely bowl-eligible when they met up with then-4th-ranked Texas. Late in the 3rd quarter, the Longhorns had kissed their chances at an Ohio State rematch goodbye, when KSU led them 42-21. Texas tacked on some points in garbage time, but the country had seen that the Wildcats were for real.

So we have two teams with a lot to prove, and I believe it will boil down to who has the most heart. Kansas State needs to prove they are still capable of great football...keep in mind, they were a BCS team just 3 years ago. Rutgers needs to prove that they belong with the big boys and that the Louisville game is indicative of their team, and not the Cincinnati game.

And if comes down to heart, I choose Rutgers. Plus, I'm betting that most of the college football world become fans of the Scarlet Knights on this night. It's just too good of a storyline.

Rutgers 33
Kansas State 24
----------------------------------------
Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M (9-3) vs. California (9-3)

Another exciting game, and unfortunately it is at the same time as the Texas Bowl. Come on, people??? There's 32 bowls in 20 days....surely you could have scheduled each game at a separate time.

California was very close to the Rose Bowl, but USC kept them out of it. But the Bears did beat two then-ranked teams (Oregon and Arizona State). However, let's look at what those three teams did in their last games.....they lost to UCLA, BYU, and Hawaii....not a good sign). Cal does have a great offense and I expect them to open it up as much as possible. They'll attack through the air as often as possible, but their good rushing attack will force the Aggies defense to stay honest.

Texas A&M also has offensive firepower, but theirs is more of a grinding ground game. But their best win of the year came as a result of their defense, holding Texas to just 7 points, their lowest of the year (tied by Ohio State). A&M does not have the best defense, but it came through when it had to.

Cal was once considered a contender for the National Championship. One game later, they lost badly to Tennessee. Later in the year, they were in contention for the Pac-10 title. One game later, they lost badly to USC. We've seen what they do when the spotlight is on the Golden Bears. It'll happen to them again.

Texas A&M 21
California 17