Saturday, December 02, 2006

My thoughts on who we get to beat

I'm looking at all the polls, and I'm trying to estimate what will happen in the next 22 hours.

The BCS is comprised of three factions...the Coaches' Poll, the Harris Poll, and the Computer polls. Headed into today's action, Florida trailed Michigan by 0.0319 points.

After careful consideration of the polls, I predict that Florida will be headed to Glendale, Arizona. Here's why;

The computer polls are a strange lot, but they will make a big difference. Here's how they looked this morning
  • AH - Michigan 3rd, Florida 4th
  • RB - Michigan 2nd, Florida 4th
  • CM - Florida 3rd, Michigan 4th
  • KM - Florida 3rd, Michigan 4th
  • JS - Michigan 2nd, Florida 4th
  • PW - Michigan 2nd, Florida 4th
Let's assume that NO leapfrogging takes place in the computer polls. USC falls out of all of them, and both UM and UF advance where they can. Michigan will advance one spot in three of the polls, Florida will advance one spot in all six. The computers take out your best ranking and your worst ranking, and tally the results.
  • Michigan will gain .02 in the computer polls
  • Florida will gain .04 in the computer polls
That brings the difference down to 0.0119. Which means the X-Factor will be the Coaches Poll.

A difference of 0.0254 separates Michigan and Florida in the Coaches Poll. USC will certainly lose all of their second-place votes, but who will they lose them to? Michigan or Florida???

Raise your hand if you think ANY SEC coaches....ANY of them....will put Michigan in 2nd place on their ballots. The SEC is desperate to maintain their "we are the best conference" mantra, and will vote to put their school in the title game. The Big Ten hasn't got as much loyalty, especially since one of their teams is already in the game.

I wouldn't even be surprised to see Tuberville and Urban Meyer vote Florida as #1 to give the Gators an extra boost into the championship. I doubt that will happen, but it wouldn't shock me at all. Tuberville's not above that kind of manipulation, and Meyer's been whining for weeks. If given a ballot and a chance to boost his team a little more, he'd be a fool to not do it.

Add to that the chance of leapfrogging in ANY poll, and you have Florida in Glendale. Florida just beat the BCS' #9 team while Michigan was idle for the second straight week...that adds up to at least a few leapfrogs.

Fair or not, this is what I see happening. And I think it's another nail in the coffin of the BCS.

But then again, I also predicted USC and Arkansas to win today, so take my calls with a huge frickin' grain of salt.


Anonymous said...

Meyer doesn't cast a vote in the coaches pool, by the way.

Otherwise, I think you're dead on.

Anonymous said...

How about Herbstreit changing his tune? It's a stab in the heart everytime he says Michigan should play us. So far, 8 stabs and counting.
Time for Herbie to move to Bristol.

Dave said...

It's Florida --

and some ridiculous homer voted Florida #1 in the Harris. That's a laugh.