Michigan State's out of the way. Four lightweights in front of us. The next test is Michigan.
In my opinion (and about half the country's as well), these two teams are on a collision course to be #1 and #2 on November 18th. I watched ABC tonight and heard about the overpowering defense of Michigan and listened as they talked about how UM "could be the best team in the country". But I also heard them talk about "who should be #2", which says that there is NO discussion over #1, it's a foregone conclusion.
However, we now have two games to start comparing Ohio State to Michigan. Both have played Penn State and both have played Michigan State. So let's get down to it, shall we??? Yes, I've cherry-picked a few stats favorable to the Buckeyes to start.
-Michigan TDs scored against MSU, PSU - 6
-Ohio State TDs scored against MSU, PSU - 9
-MSU, PSU TDs allowed by Michigan - 3
-MSU, PSU TDs allowed by Ohio State - 1
-Margin of victory for Michigan - 12.5
-Margin of victory for Ohio State - 26.5
The Buckeyes are dominating these three, clearly. There's also a few stats that are AMAZINGLY close!
-Ohio State rushing against MSU/PSU - 324 yards
-Michigan rushing against MSU/PSU - 327 yards
-Ohio State passing against MSU/PSU - 345 yards
-Michigan passing against MSU/PSU - 336 yards
But when you get down to a few more in-depth stats, you see where the battle will unfold. It's in the DEFENSIVE passing game vs. DEFENSIVE running game.
-MSU/PSU rushing yards allowed by Ohio State - 102 per game
-MSU/PSU rushing yards allowed by Michigan - 23 per game
-MSU/PSU passing yards allowed by Ohio State - 120 per game
-MSU/PSU passing yards allowed by Michigan - 229 per game
So there it is. Michigan stops the run, but gives up a lot of passing yards. Ohio State stops the pass, but allows a lot of rushing yards. Now you look at each teams weapons and the picture gets clearer.
Mike Hart will get his yards, but Chad Henne will not. Troy Smith will get his yards, but Antonio Pittman will not.
Which means that Michigan will be relying on Mike Hart and Ohio State will be relying on Troy Smith.
I like those odds.
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6 comments:
I'm concerned about Hart running all over us because it can really open up the passing game, especially Manningham, if that is the case. I understand your logic to take Smith's abilities over Hart's, but if our defense can't cause it's usual 26 turnovers per game, we may be in more trouble than you think.
I still like the Bucks mainly because we have Tressel and they have John Cooper 2.0. Also, are odds are in our favor Chad Henne of 2005 shows up for The Game. But really, you have to be concerned about what their ground game can do against us.
Hart is absolutely scary and this year, this game is scarier than many years.
But, considering Henne's performance every year against us, and after after Troy's performance against MSU (Robiske toss was amazing)I like our chances even better than before. Tressel is so far in Lloyd's head that Lloyd might start wearing a vest.
I can tell you one thing:
What we do against the run against anyone else other than Michigan is one thing.
What we do against Michigan is another.
OSU's front four is awesome. It's really pretty interesting that we've given up a lot on the run considering. However...I do think this defense risks a bit more to get to the quarterback...to allow less time for a QB to pick apart a completely new secondary.
This will and has improved. Watch what happens against Michigan...Mike Hart will stop beating...
mark my words.
Also, let's not forget about OSU's kick return potential - that Michigan doesn't have. Those are good odds, too.
The only thing that I think can really damage us vs. Michigan is the play of Branch, Woodley, and the UM linebackers.
Looking at comparison games is not a good way of comparing two teams, but whatever. You can use statistics to your advantage on both ends. Michigan score vs. PSU at half 17-3, OSU down 0-3 - advantage Michigan. OSU vs MSU 27-0 at half. Michigan up 24-0 before MSU scores. The MSU team that OSU played last Saturday (I was There) was AWFUL - period. Missing 3 starters and beat down by last 3 weeks.
Michigan hasn't beat Iowa yet either.
11/18 - look for OSU to be favored by 4, and this game will come down to turnovers. Michigan doesn't give up many and OSU lives off them.
People...
the bottom line for this game is preparation...period.
And I'm not talking normal preparation.
Tressel understands that the meaning of this game is much, much more than a national championship game...
It's Michigan.
It's in the Shoe...
and this place will be freakin' lathered.
People keep forgetting that this defense, as good as it is (OSU's), isn't nearly as good as it will be in 31 days.
People keep forgetting that the first thing Tressel does every year is circle the Michigan date.
People keep forgetting that rarely does the BEST team necesarily win, but generally, the team that gets the rivalry more.
Not only is OSU better, but they GET the rivalry.
I don't think this game will be close.
Just one guy's opinion.
Many WANT this to be #1 vs. #2. I still don't see Michigan as #2. Not yet.
And before we compare statistics, remember this. As flashy as the OSU offense is, Tressel spends a bunch of time preaching ball control, and field position. IMO, a lot of the early low scoring is Tressel preaching that very thing.
You all know as well as I do, that the OSU playbook opens up against Michigan.
This will be the SHINING MOMENT for Troy Smith...
period.
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