Sunday, November 11, 2007

The BCS Championship Game - It's not over yet

I'm looking over the latest BCS standings (we're 7th), and I'm not as upset as you might think.

As a matter of fact, there's still hope for the Buckeyes to get into the BCS Championship Game. Granted, it's a faint glimmer of hope, but it does still exist. Hear me out on this one.

Here's the current standings;
1LSU
.9802
2Oregon
.9383
3Kansas
.9094
4Oklahoma
.8540
5Missouri
.8096
6West Virginia
.7863
7Ohio State
.7744

Let's state the obvious....we need to pass five teams to get into the top 2, and reach the title game. So let's look at the possibilities of that. Pay attention, it's gonna get a bit tricky.

#6 West Virginia's remaining schedule
At Cincinnati (8-2)
Connecticut (8-2)
Pittsburgh (4-5)

The Mountaineers are going to beat Pitt, and UConn is not as good as their record will show.

West Virginia's biggest chance at falling is this Saturday when they visit Cincinnati. The Bearcats have completely exposed three front runners in the Big East by defeating Rutgers on the road, South Florida on the road and humiliating Connecticut at home. They believe in themselves, and WVA is not a hard team to figure out. They win with speed. Nullify that speed and Cincy can pull the upset.

Losing to Cincy will drop a 2-loss WVA well below us.

#5 Missouri's remaining schedule
at Kansas State (5-5)
at Kansas (10-0)
Possible Big 12 Championship game

If the Tigers win at KSU and at KU, they get into the Big 12 Championship Game. Let's just say that Mizzou NEEDS to win on their road trip through Our Most Boring State, and then fall to Oklahoma in the aforementioned title game. Their late loss will drop them below us as well.

That loss would drop Missouri to 2 losses, and below us. The Tigers fans will cry "common opponents" and point to their win over Illinois, but it won't help.

#4 Oklahoma's remaining schedule
at Texas Tech (7-4)
Oklahoma State (5-5)
Possible Big 12 Championship game

Their best chance to lose again is in the Big 12 title game...but we just gave them that win, and we need it to knock off Missouri. Traveling to Texas Tech is never easy, and Oklahoma could get their loss here (depending on which defense the Red Raiders decide to put on the field). Oklahoma State isn't a great team, but do not discount the impact that rivalry has....plus, i you tell Mike Gundy that he can ruin the Sooners chances, he'll have his team ready.

But make no mistake, we NEED an upset of the Sooners during the regular season, and then we need them to win that Big 12 title game. By the way, one loss would still get them into the title game, in case you were wondering. They hold the tiebreaker with Texas.

That upset would drop the Sooners below us, and despite winning the Big 12, 2 losses to unranked teams will put them in a BCS Bowl, but not the big one.

#3 Kansas' remaining schedule
Iowa State (3-8)
Missouri (9-1)

Forget about Iowa State. They might be able to beat Kansas...last year. But not in 2007.

Besides, we already said Missouri would beat the Jayhawks about six paragraphs ago. So lets cut this to the chase and end Kansas' season with a loss.

That loss will put Kansas at 11-1, and not winning their conference will drop the Jayhawks below us and out of the picture.

#2 Oregon's remaining schedule
at Arizona (4-6)
at UCLA (5-5)
Oregon State (6-4)

I'll be honest with you. Forget about it. Oregon's got their ticket to the BCS Championship Game punched already. Unless they beat themselves, they're in. Arizona, Oregon State and Notre Dame's only bitch will not be able to stop them.

#1 LSU's remaining schedule
at Mississippi (3-7)
Arkansas (6-4)
SEC Championship Game

Ole Miss is the SEC version of Minnesota...forget about that one. Ditto Arkansas, especially playing at LSU. Our only shot at LSU falling is in the SEC title game, where they will probably play Georgia. We will have to become Bulldog fans two weeks after our season has ended, but it could be our last best chance at another championship game.

Is LSU loses to Georgia, it'll give the Tigers two losses, and a final week defeat will drop LSU out of the BCS Championship Game.

As for Georgia, they'd win the SEC and be 11-2. I do not see how the SEC-driven media will convince enough voters to leapfrog them over Ohio State (they're currently 9th), unless they beat LSU by 28 points.

So there you have it. It's exhausting, but we have a road map to the college football championship.

- West Virginia must lose to Cincinnati on November 17th
- Missouri must lose to Oklahoma on December 2nd (Sunday?)
- Oklahoma must lose Texas Tech on 11/17 OR to Okla State on 11/24
- Kansas must lose to Missouri on November 24th
- LSU must lose in the SEC Championship Game on December 1st

But none of that will matter one little bit if Ohio State doesn't beat Michigan on November 17th. Our win comes first.

Let's earn the Rose Bowl berth first.....and then see if Woody can convince God to help us out a bit over the following 15 days.

1 comment:

rick grayshock said...

Um, nice try Jeff. No way voters leave Georgia behind OSU if they beat the #1 team in the country in the SEC championship. Ohio State would have to beat Michigan by 50 to even be sniffed in the Championship game. Not gonna happen. But that's ok. We can beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and play in the Rose Bowl this year. That sounds like the Trifecta of old to me!